Between the Great Powers: South American Non-Alignment in an Era of Great Power Competition

South American countries are increasingly facing pressure to choose a side in geopolitical competition between the United States and China, but most are refusing to do so. Why are these smaller, less powerful states not aligning with either side? What strategies are they pursuing instead? Drawing on fieldwork in Argentina, Chile, and Ecuador, this project theorizes three non-alignment strategies and explains the conditions under which countries choose each. Interviews with decision-makers, policy documents, and newspaper articles show that outcomes are driven by ideas about the degree to which the rising power, China, is a security concern, and about whether the international system is a positive- or zero-sum game. These ideas are the product of interactions between the material preferences of powerful domestic interest groups and the identities held by the political elites in office.